vysyble’s first foray into business dynamics started with English football.
We decided to examine football simply because, as football fans, we were getting increasingly frustrated with the predominantly poor-quality coverage of football’s financial performance and the frequently incorrect accompanying analyses.
We released our very first report ‘We’re So Rich its Unbelievable! The Illusion of Wealth Within Football. 1st edition’ in November 2016.
Since then we have released three more editions of ‘We’re So Rich…’ in what is now an annual review of the Premier League clubs incorporating a thorough economic examination of the division and its constituents based on the most recent set of annual accounts. The latest edition runs to over 60 pages with over 100 charts and information tables.
In October 2017 we released ‘Over The Line‘ which looked at the costs incurred by clubs chasing promotion into the English Premier League together with longevity for promoted clubs within the division and the cost of relegation. The last update – Over the Line 2 – was released in 2018.
In between our work on football, we have released reports on the UK supermarket sector and UK energy supply market together with blogs on selected company performances across a number of different industry sectors including the commercial property, communications and retail markets.
We launched our first index – the vysyble Football Profitability Index® – in 2017 as part of the 2nd edition of ‘We’re So Rich…’. The index measures the economic efficiency of clubs in converting their revenue into economic profit and has proven to be an incredibly insightful and revealing measurement capability. It is a key factor in establishing the firm link between economic efficiency and relegation in the English Premier League.
At the beginning of the 2017-18 football season, we trialled and launched Matchday Metrics. This is an information service distributed via Twitter and Instagram (both via @vysyble) where fans can see and compare the economic and financial position of their own club set against their opponent on the day of the game. In June 2018, the service was upgraded and renamed Matchday Data. It has proven to be a wonderfully interactive offering with both fan engagement and impression numbers increasing month-on-month.
We were also the only entity to identify the Premier League’s first ‘Billion Pound Game‘ where the two clubs involved (Arsenal and Manchester United) had a combined annual revenue of just over £1bn. This resulted in further global media coverage for the company.
Indeed, our work has received international coverage and recognition from numerous media outlets and individuals. We were especially pleased that we were asked to compose a guest blog for Professor Stefan Szymanski’s Soccernomics website in September 2017. See article.
In conjunction with Professor John Barbour of the University of Strathclyde Business School, we launched the Future Market Value model in September 2019 with an analysis of the world’s largest 15 Pharmaceutical companies. By calculating the level of expectation in terms of future business performance as a percentage of the share price, we can determine the future rate of economic returns required to meet the current share price.
The implications for management teams and directors are clear. The capital markets do not reward underperformance. Therefore, do the relevant companies have the necessary strategies in place to meet shareholder expectations? If not, what can be done? That’s where we come in…
Our belief in value-based analysis and insight emanates from the same thread of thinking as that of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet. Our reports have been purchased by global consulting companies, UHNW family offices, major investment banks and sporting consultancy/sponsorship businesses. Our opinion is sought by some of the world’s leading media outlets as we continue to spread the word about value-based performance.
Validation of our work
More often than not, we offer a contrarian view to the established narrative. This is attributable to seeking out the utmost levels of transparency regarding business costs as demanded by the economic profit metric. Despite the protests and opposition from various quarters that the economic profit measure is either ‘unsuitable’ or ‘inappropriate’, we usually find ourselves being right in the end. Here are a few examples…
19th June 2018 – ‘Newcastle United’s transfer budget explained’ – Newcastle Chronicle.
‘This is the best explanation yet why Newcastle United’s transfer budget is not at the top end of the Premier League market’ – Mark Douglas, Football Editor Newcastle Chronicle.
We said…’A European Super League is inevitable’ –The Sun, 26th December 2016.
2nd November 2018 – Documents show secret plans for Elite League of Top Clubs – Der Spiegel
2nd November 2018 – Top European clubs again planning Super League breakaway – Reuters
6th November 2018 – European Super League would threaten football’s future – The Guardian
25th April 2019 – Chairman of European Clubs Association (ECA) releases letter to all ECA clubs calling for a ‘pyramidal Pan European League System…’
We said… ‘…the Big Six energy companies are not rolling in money nor are they making insane profits…Deteriorating financial performance on this scale will soon mean the Big Six becoming a very average-sized Five or even Four.’ – blog ‘Illuminating, non?‘ vysyble.com, 9th May 2017.
8th November 2017 – SSE confirms merger with Npower – BBC
We said… ‘…big spending English Football League (EFL) clubs are chasing a dream that can rapidly become a financial nightmare….without the presence of extremely generous benefactors, the current situation is wholly unsustainable in the longer term unless the EFL starts to recognise and measure the economic health of clubs’ – Press release ‘Championship clubs generate average losses of £14.67m during promotion season to Premier League’ vysyble.com, 10th October 2017.
10th October 2017 (in reply to our findings) – ‘…no club had been through an insolvency process for several years’ – An EFL spokesperson, reported on BBC Sports website
29th April 2018 – Ellis Short – ‘Man who lost £200m while running Sunderland into ground’ – The Northern Echo
5th June 2018 – Aston Villa miss £4m tax bill deadline as Chief Executive is suspended – The Guardian
4th January 2019 – Birmingham City facing significant points deduction following financial overspending – Sporting Life
13th May 2019 – Bolton Wanderers appoint administrators and face 12-point deduction – BBC News
28th August 2019 – Bury expelled from EFL due to insufficient financial resources – various
We said… ‘We’re getting to the point where the cycle of ever-bigger domestic TV deals is unsustainable.’ – Mail Online, 10th July 2017.
13th February 2018 – Premier League takes a hit as football TV rights price falls – Financial Times
14th February 2018 – Premier League raises less from TV rights auction – BBC
7th June 2018 – Amazon to show 20 matches a season from 2019 – BBC
We said… ‘…between 2010 and 2017, according to Hammerson’s annual reports, the ‘bonus’ to the CEO totalled £5.4m despite the company consistently producing a capital market value less than book equity.’ – blog ‘Mall Administration’ vysyble.com, 3rd August 2018.
28th April 2019 – Hammerson faces shareholder rebellion over executive pay – The Guardian
Roger Bell MBA
Formerly the Director of Strategy, Risk and Marketing for a FTSE-100 company, Roger has been an avid promoter of the concept of shaping strategy via a value-based perspective in conjunction with Professor John Barbour (University of Strathclyde Business School). He has advised a wide range of companies including several FTSE-100 businesses and has also had his work debated in UK and European Parliaments regarding his study on the financial viability of Europe’s energy companies. Roger has also had several articles published in industry journals covering a wide range of sectors and companies as well as being quoted and interviewed by various media around the world. Roger’s only irrational pursuit is that of supporting Newcastle United.
John Purcell B.Sc (Hons)
John has held a number of senior roles in companies providing business and financial information. John has a particular interest in trend dynamics and has been active in developing the indexing capabilities of the business.